SEO Traffic Projector
Project monthly organic traffic = sum of (search volume × CTR-by-rank) across all targeted KWs. Top-3 ranks capture 40-65% of clicks; top-10 captures 80%; below-10 captures 20% combined. AIO compresses top-3 click share by 18-35% in 2026.
- Top-3 CTR: 25-30% (rank 1), 12-15% (rank 2), 8-10% (rank 3).
- AIO compresses top-3 by 18-35% on AIO-triggering queries.
- Realistic 12-month SEO program: target 60% of KW universe at top-10.
% of top-3 clicks lost to AIO
Traffic = KW count × Volume × Rank-share × CTR-by-rank × (1 − AIO compression)- Build KW list from Ahrefs / Semrush.
- Avg volume from tool data; ignore zero-volume tail.
- Realistic rank-share: 60% top-10 in year 1, 80% in year 2.
- AIO compression: 20% conservative; some queries 40%.
Frequently asked questions
Why does CTR vary so much by rank?
Position 1 captures most clicks. Position 4-10 share what's left. Below 10, clicks fall off cliff. AIO addition compresses top-3 further by intercepting clicks.
How accurate is search volume from tools?
Ahrefs/Semrush volumes are ±30% accurate. Use for relative prioritization, not absolute traffic forecasts.
What rank should I target for new sites?
Top-10 is realistic for low-difficulty KWs (KD<30) within 4-9 months. Top-3 takes 9-18 months and requires DR 30+. Don't target top-3 on KD>50 without backlink budget.
How do I account for AIO compression?
On AIO-triggering queries (how/what/why/best/compare), reduce projected CTR by 25-35% for top-3 ranks. AIO citation gets back ~50% of lost clicks.
Want this applied to your business?
The tool gives the model. The audit applies it to your specific stage, ICP, and unit economics. Free 30 minutes.